A Study on Hubbert Peak for Natural Gas of Bangladesh: A System Dynamics Approach

M. King Hubbert, an American geophysicist, in 1956 introduced a logistic equation for the estimation of USA peak and lifetime. As a case study, this paper investigates the Hubbert peak for Natural Gas production of Bangladesh. In this work, the authors have adopted system dynamics methodology to examine the Hubbert peak for Bangladesh's Gas production. Results show that the peak will occur in the 2012 with a value of 2184550 million cubic foot which is about 3 times of the 2011 year production. The proposed model helps us to evaluate different scenarios as well as performing sensitivity analysis which give us informative and useful forecasts about the time and value of Hubbert peak in different conditions. Thus, it is useful for Bangladeshi and international energy policy makers to understand the forthcoming shortage in the world's energy supply. Since this is the first study of Hubbert peak for Bangladesh, comparison with previous forecasts about this peak is not possible in this study. Index Terms Hubbert Peak, Natural Gas, Bangladesh, Energy, Oil, renewable.